Way Too Early MLS Covid Cup Predictions
Today I was able to hop on a Zoom call with my MLS Aces guys Vaughn Pollman & Will Flores as we were able to watch the group draw for the 2020 MLS Covid Cup… I mean MLS is Back Cup. We sat there: talked MLS, made some predictions on the “random” draw, and had a good amount of laughs. But we sat back and watch the groups draw and fall out like this:
Group A: Orlando City SC, Inter Miami CF, NYCFC, Philadelphia Union, Chicago Fire, & Nashville SC
Group B: Seattle Sounders, FC Dallas, Vancouver Whitecaps, & SJ Earthquakes
Group C: Toronto FC, NE Revolution, Montreal Impact, & D.C. United
Group D: Real Salt Lake, Sporting KC, Colorado Rapids, & Minnesota United
Group E: Atlanta United, FC Cincinnati, New York Red Bulls, & Columbus Crew
Group F: LAFC, LA Galaxy, Houston Dynamo, & Portland Timbers
We laughed as Vaugh, Will, and myself all predicted some of these “random” draws like LAFC and the LA Galaxy in the same group, Toronto FC/ Montreal, and Seattle/Vancouver. But then we got into the logistics; who we think will win, who has a tough group, etc. Now without even knowing what players will or won’t make the trip (and even if they do make the trip) who will be playing in the games, I have decided to create a “Way Too Early Covid Cup Prediction” blog. Now for some starters, for those who don’t know; the top two teams in each group will advance and the four best third place finishers will move on to the Round of 16. Here are my predictions for each group and who will move on to the knockout round.
Group A is the interesting group in this tournament because not every team in the group will play each other. With that some teams have easier schedules than others in this group. There is also a decent amount of scrub teams in this group. The top team when you consider talent, depth, and coach is easily NYCFC. NYCFC gets to play two pretty much cake walks in Orlando City & Chicago, picking up 6 points. Their other game is against the other tough team in the group, the Union. DOOP will definitely give NYCFC a tough game but I’m predicting another win and 9 points. They are pretty much two players deep at each position. But now I’m going on with the Union. Other than a loss to NYCFC, you have to think that Curtain will have the boys ready for the likes of Nashville and Miami. Curtain has a pretty successful record in MLS tournament competitions, making 3 US Open Cup finals. I think that will play in this tournament as well and the Union make it out of the group with 6 points. Group A finishes up with the Fire in 3rd (4 points and best remaining goal differential), Miami finishing in 4th (4 points), Orlando City in 5th (1 point), and Nashville in 6th (1 point).
Group B has a true contender, two teams fighting to make it out, and then a bottom feeder. Seattle is the top dogs, with their toughest opponent probably coming in the form of their final game, San Jose. Seattle should be able to get past Vancouver and Dallas, but Almeyda’s boys might give them problems for a full 90 after two other games. But at the end of the day, unless there is some unforeseen issue, Seattle should sweep with 9 points. It was tough looking at the Quakes and FC Dallas here. I am predicting a draw between these two sides when they play and I also think they both get 3 points vs Vancouver as well as 0 points vs Seattle. So both these teams would finish with 4 points in my predictions, but my faith in the Quakes coaching staff and depth is there more than Dallas. SJ’s goal differential pushes them to 2nd and Dallas 3rd. Sorry Whitecap’s fans… thats a big ole 0 points and finishing 4th.
Group C might be underrated as nobody is calling it the group of death… it might be! My team im predicting to win the group, Toronto FC, have made it to three of the last four MLS Cup finals. Toronto has top notch coaching in Greg Vanney, the ability to adjust, top tier talent, and some stupid depth. Easy for wins vs the Revs and Impact. But they might have some trouble with the team I have finishing in second, D.C. United. DCU might have more talent than TFC and arguably even more depth. But I’m not too sure about Ben Olsen’s ability to adjust and keep the guys on top of every game. So I have Toronto coming in 1st with 7 points and D.C. in 2nd with 5 points. Coming in third I had to give the edge to the MLS verteran over the MLS rookie… Arena beats out Henry. The Revs have a top of the line goalscorer in Gustavo Bou, top creator in Carles Gil, as well as stud defenders in Andrew Farrell and Alexander Buttner. I think that beats out the super thin talent that Henry’s Impact brings.
In Group D might have the toughest battle for 1st than I’ve seen yet. Sporting Kansas City, Minnesota United, and the Rapids are all stocked with talent and have similar levels of depth. The thing that seperates them in my head is coaching. I’m not saying that Adrian Heath or Robin Fraser are bad coaches, but Peter Vermes is arguably top of the line in MLS circles. I think that given Vermes’s experiences in competitions like the U.S. Open Cup as well as having guys like Pulido, Russell, Melia, Besler, and Zusi… they should be finishing 1st. I had Minnesota finishing with the same number of points as SKC but SKC winning on goal differential. I love Minnesota’s defense as well as midfield. They have good attackers too, but not sure if I have complete confidence in an entire tournament in their striker options. Falling in 3rd and just behind those other two, the Rapids coming in here. The Rapids have good talent but I think their lack of decent depth in the attack and midfield leaves them just behind. Also, want to say that I don’t hate Real Salt Lake. I know they were the group leaders but they lost so much and didn’t replace it.
Oh Group E… everyone I want you to comment down below “F” for FC Cincinnati. They are the clear 4th team in this group for obvious reasons. Sorry Travis and Nate. I might take the hot take here but the Columbus Crew take the 1st spot here with wins vs Cincy and the Red Bulls. I think a draw vs Atlanta United splits it but 7 points and a better goal differential puts them over Atlanta. Atlanta without Josef isn’t as good as the Crew and even though I had them predicted at 7 points as well, their goal differential won’t be as good as Columbus’s. I think the Red Bulls fall in at 3rd after losses to Columbus and Atlanta.
Finally, we have Group F! F for fucks sake this was set up! LAFC and the LA Galaxy in the same group… what were the odds? Let me just say it; A+ coaching, A+ talent, and A+ depth gives LAFC the top spot. And I will also say right now that the Houston Dynamo have very limited coaching experience as well as very little depth. Houston comes in last. Now we have the Galaxy and Timbers fighting for 2nd. I gave the nod to Portland. Why? Portland has proven MLS coaching in Gio, proven MLS talent in Diego Chara, Valeri, Seba Blanco, Ebobisse and more. Then adding outside talent in Zuparic, Felipe Mora, Yimmi Chara and others. The Galaxy lost their biggest weapon that won games for them in 2019 (also their biggest flaw) in Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Yes, they replaced him with Chicharito, but they still didn’t acknowledge the defense.
So overall, if you’re a fan of these 16 teams you’re in luck because I AM ALWAYS RIGHT! NYCFC, Union, Fire, Sounders, Quakes, FC Dallas, Toronto FC, D.C. United, Revs, SKC, Loons, Rapids, Crew, Atlanta, LAFC, or the Timbers… you guys are safe. To everyone else, I’m sorry but you’re gone! See you in 2021!
